Item talk:Q56735: Difference between revisions

{"@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "CreativeWork", "additionalType": "USGS Numbered Series", "name": "Potential duration of aftershocks of the 2020 southwestern Puerto Rico earthquake", "identifier": [{"@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID", "value": "ofr20201009", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20201009"}, {"@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID", "value": 70208019}, {"@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "DOI", "value": "10.3133/ofr20201009", "url": "https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201009"}], "inLanguage": "en", "isPartOf": [{"@type": "CreativeWorkSeries", "name": "Open-File Report"}], "datePublished": "2020", "dateModified": "2022-04-21", "abstract": "AbstractAftershocks (earthquakes clustered spatially and chronologically near the occurrence of a causative earthquake) are ongoing in southwestern Puerto Rico after a series of earthquakes, which include a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that occurred near Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, on January 7, 2020, and affected the surrounding area. This report estimates the expected duration of these aftershocks by incorporating observations of aftershocks as of January 17, 2020, into a well-established statistical model of how earthquake sequences behave. Aftershocks will persist for years to decades, although with decreasing frequency, and earthquakes will likely be felt on a daily basis for up to several months. These estimates have significant uncertainty owing to different scenarios of how the earthquake sequence may evolve over time and could also change if a new large aftershock occurs. This report also estimates the amount of time remaining until the annual probability of magnitude 5, 6, and 7 or greater aftershocks\u2014which could cause additional damage\u2014decreases to 50, 25, 10, 5, and 1 percent. As of this writing, the chance of having a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake within a given year, going forward, will not fall below 25 percent for another 3 months to 3 years. The chance of having a magnitude 5 or greater earthquake will not fall below 25 percent for a decade or more. The aftershocks discussed in this report would be located in the same general area as the aftershocks that have already occurred. Our results do not imply a change in the risk of earthquakes in other parts of Puerto Rico.ResumenLas r\u00e9plicas (terremotos agrupados espacial y cronol\u00f3gicamente cerca de la ocurrencia de un terremoto causante) est\u00e1n en curso en el suroeste de Puerto Rico despu\u00e9s de una serie de terremotos, que incluyen un terremoto de magnitud 6.4, ocurrido cerca del Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, el 7 de enero de 2020 y que afectaron las \u00e1reas circundantes. Este informe estima la duraci\u00f3n esperada de las r\u00e9plicas incorporando observaciones de r\u00e9plicas a partir del 17 de enero de 2020 en un modelo estad\u00edstico bien establecido de c\u00f3mo se comportan las secuencias de terremotos. Las r\u00e9plicas persistir\u00e1n durante a\u00f1os o d\u00e9cadas, aunque con una frecuencia decreciente, y los terremotos probablemente se sentir\u00e1n a diario durante varios meses. Estos estimados tienen una incertidumbre significativa debido a diferentes escenarios de c\u00f3mo la secuencia del terremoto puede evolucionar con el tiempo y tambi\u00e9n podr\u00edan cambiar si ocurre una nueva r\u00e9plica grande. Este informe tambi\u00e9n estima la cantidad de tiempo restante hasta que la probabilidad anual de r\u00e9plicas de magnitud 5, 6 y 7 o m\u00e1s - que podr\u00eda causar da\u00f1os adicionales- disminuya a un 50, 25, 10, 5 y 1 por ciento. Al momento de escribir este art\u00edculo, la posibilidad de tener un terremoto de magnitud 6 en un a\u00f1o determinado, en el futuro, no caer\u00e1 por debajo del 25 por ciento durante otros 3 meses a 3 a\u00f1os. La probabilidad de tener un terremoto de magnitud 5 o mayor no ser\u00e1 inferior al 25 por ciento durante una d\u00e9cada o m\u00e1s. Las r\u00e9plicas discutidas en este informe se ubicar\u00edan en la misma \u00e1rea general que las r\u00e9plicas que ya han ocurrido. Nuestros resultados no implican un cambio en el riesgo de terremotos en otras partes de Puerto Rico.", "description": "v, 5 p.", "publisher": {"@type": "Organization", "name": "U.S. Geological Survey"}, "author": [{"@type": "Person", "name": "Michael, Andrew J. michael@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Andrew J.", "familyName": "Michael", "email": "michael@usgs.gov", "identifier": {"@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-2403-5019", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2403-5019"}, "affiliation": [{"@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center"}, {"@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Hazards Program", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards"}]}, {"@type": "Person", "name": "Hardebeck, Jeanne L. jhardebeck@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Jeanne L.", "familyName": "Hardebeck", "email": "jhardebeck@usgs.gov", "identifier": {"@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-6737-7780", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6737-7780"}, "affiliation": [{"@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center"}, {"@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Hazards Program", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards"}]}, {"@type": "Person", "name": "van der Elst, Nicholas nvanderelst@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Nicholas", "familyName": "van der Elst", "email": "nvanderelst@usgs.gov", "identifier": {"@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-3812-1153", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3812-1153"}, "affiliation": [{"@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center"}, {"@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Hazards Program", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards"}]}], "funder": [{"@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center"}], "spatialCoverage": [{"@type": "Place", "additionalType": "country", "name": "United States", "url": "https://geonames.org/6252001"}, {"@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "Puerto Rico"}, {"@type": "Place", "geo": [{"@type": "GeoShape", "additionalProperty": {"@type": "PropertyValue", "name": "GeoJSON", "value": {"type": "FeatureCollection", "features": [{"type": "Feature", "properties": {}, "geometry": {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": [[[-67.21, 17.7683], [-66.5942, 17.7683], [-66.5942, 18.0558], [-67.21, 18.0558], [-67.21, 17.7683]]]}}]}}}, {"@type": "GeoCoordinates", "latitude": 17.912050000000004, "longitude": -66.90209999999998}]}]}