Item talk:Q70891
From geokb
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"name": "Probability of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate in ground water in a six-county area of south-central Idaho",
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"abstract": "A probability map constructed for this study\nidentified several areas in a six-county region of\nsouth-central Idaho with high probabilities of\ndetecting elevated concentrations (greater than\n2 milligrams per liter) of nitrate. An increasing\nproportion of Idaho\u2019s ground water being used\nfor drinking water and large increases in the inputs\nof nitrogen to ground water in Cassia, Gooding,\nJerome, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Twin Falls Counties\nhave prompted concerns about the quality of\nthe resource. The probability map was constructed\nto assist regulatory and resource agencies in managing\nland use and protecting water resources.\nTo construct the probability map, hydrogeologic\nand anthropogenic data were integrated with\nground-water quality data in a geographic information\nsystem. The resulting data set contained\nland use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics,\ndepth to ground water, nitrogen input, and\nground-water velocity information for each of the\n1,365 samples collected from 1991 to 2001. Logistic\nregression analysis was used to determine the\nmost statistically significant variables related to\nthe detection of elevated nitrate concentrations.\nThe resulting multivariate probability model\nshowed that ground-water velocity, nitrogen input,\nprecipitation, soil drainage, land use, and depth to\nground water were significantly correlated with\nelevated nitrate concentrations. A subset of the\nwater-quality data set was used to verify these\nresults. Linear regression of the percentage of predicted\nprobabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations\nand the actual percentage of elevated nitrate\nconcentrations with the model data set and the verification\ndata set both showed good correlations:\nr-squared values were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively.\nStatistical comparisons of both data sets showed\nthat ground-water samples containing elevated\nnitrate concentrations had significantly higher\nprobabilities of detection (p < 0.001) than samples\nwithout elevated nitrate concentrations. On the\nbasis of these results, a map identifying the probability\nof detecting elevated nitrate concentrations\nwas constructed. High-probability areas on the\nmap coincided with regions of agricultural land\nuse and high nitrogen input, except in southern\nGooding County and western Jerome County. In\nthese areas, high ground-water velocities representing\na predominance of regional ground water\nresulted in a low probability of detecting elevated\nnitrate concentrations. Areas of poor prediction\ntended to be congregated along the transition zone\nbetween high and low ground-water velocities in\nJerome and Gooding Counties, indicating a mix of\nregional and recently recharged ground water.",
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