Item talk:Q312090
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{
"USGS Publications Warehouse": { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "additionalType": "Journal Article", "name": "A Bayesian approach to predict sub-annual beach change and recovery", "identifier": [ { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID", "value": "70201364", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70201364" }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID", "value": 70201364 }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "DOI", "value": "10.1007/s12237-018-0444-1", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-018-0444-1" } ], "journal": { "@type": "Periodical", "name": "Estuaries and Coasts", "volumeNumber": "42", "issueNumber": "1" }, "inLanguage": "en", "isPartOf": [ { "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries", "name": "Estuaries and Coasts" } ], "datePublished": "2019", "dateModified": "2019-01-28", "abstract": "The upper beach, between the astronomical high tide and the dune-toe, supports habitat and recreation along many beaches, making predictions of upper beach change valuable to coastal managers and the public. We developed and tested a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the cross-shore position of an upper beach elevation contour (ZlD) following 1\u00a0month to 1-year intervals at Fire Island, New York. We combine hydrodynamic data with series of island-wide topographic data and spatially limited cross-shore profiles. First, we predicted beach configuration of ZlD positions at high spatial resolution (50\u00a0m) over intervals spanning 2005\u20132014. Compared to untrained model predictions, in which all six outcomes are equally likely (prior likelihood = 0.16), our prediction metrics (skill = 0.52; log likelihood ratio = 0.14; accuracy = 0.56) indicate the BN confidently predicts upper beach dynamics. Next, the BN forecasted three intervals of beach recovery following Hurricane Sandy. Results suggest the pre-Sandy training data is sufficiently robust to require only periodic updates to beach slope observations to maintain confidence for forecasts. Finally, we varied input data, using observations collected at a range of temporal (1\u201312\u00a0months) and spatial (50\u00a0m to >\u20091\u00a0km) resolutions to evaluate model skill. This experiment shows that data collection techniques with different spatial and temporal frequencies can be used to inform a single modeling framework and can provide insight to BN training requirements. Overall, results indicate that BNs and inputs can be developed for broad coastal change assessment or tailored to a set of predictive requirements, making this methodology applicable to a variety of coastal prediction scenarios.", "description": "20 p.", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Springer" }, "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Wilson, Kathleen kwilson@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Kathleen", "familyName": "Wilson", "email": "kwilson@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-2810-7585", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2810-7585" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/spcmsc" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Lentz, Erika elentz@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Erika", "familyName": "Lentz", "email": "elentz@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-0621-8954", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0621-8954" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/woods-hole-coastal-and-marine-science-center" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Miselis, Jennifer L. jmiselis@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Jennifer L.", "familyName": "Miselis", "email": "jmiselis@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-4925-3979", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4925-3979" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/spcmsc" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Safak, Ilgar isafak@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Ilgar", "familyName": "Safak", "email": "isafak@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0001-7675-0770", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7675-0770" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/woods-hole-coastal-and-marine-science-center" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Brenner, Owen T. obrenner@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Owen T.", "familyName": "Brenner", "email": "obrenner@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-1588-721X", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1588-721X" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/spcmsc" } ] } ], "funder": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/spcmsc" } ] }, "OpenAlex": { "_id": "https://openalex.org/w2889021632", "abstract_inverted_index": null, "apc_list": { "value": 2790, "currency": "EUR", "value_usd": 3590, "provenance": "doaj" }, "apc_paid": null, "authorships": [ { "author_position": "first", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5011226452", "display_name": "Kat Wilson", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2810-7585" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I2801637956", "display_name": "Cherokee Nation", "ror": "https://ror.org/00p23dy23", "country_code": "US", "type": "government", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I2801637956" ] }, { "id": "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "display_name": "United States Geological Survey", "ror": "https://ror.org/035a68863", "country_code": "US", "type": "government", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "https://openalex.org/I1335927249" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": true, "raw_author_name": "Kat Wilson", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ "Cherokee Nation Technologies contracted to U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, 600 4th St South, St Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Cherokee Nation Technologies contracted to U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, 600 4th St South, St Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I2801637956", "https://openalex.org/I1286329397" ] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5068722991", "display_name": "Erika E. 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