Item talk:Q310594
From geokb
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"name": "Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across pan-arctic permafrost region",
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"datePublished": "2019",
"dateModified": "2020-10-15",
"abstract": "Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1,2,3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2\u00a0released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2\u00a0flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662\u2009TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October\u2013April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (\u22121,032\u2009TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2\u00a0emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario\u2014Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5\u2014and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario\u2014Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2\u00a0emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2\u00a0loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.",
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