Item talk:Q309382

From geokb

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   "name": "Investigation of recent decadal-scale cyclical fluctuations in salinity in the lower Colorado river",
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   "abstract": "Beginning in the late 1970s, 10- to 15-year cyclical oscillations in\u00a0salinity\u00a0were observed at lower Colorado River monitoring sites, moving upstream from the international border with Mexico, above Imperial Dam, below Hoover Dam, and at Lees Ferry. The cause of these cyclical trends in salinity was unknown. These salinity cycles complicate the U.S. Bureau of\u00a0Reclamation's\u00a0(Reclamation) responsibility for managing salinity in the river for delivery of water to Mexico to meet\u00a0treaty\u00a0obligations. This study develops a conceptual model of the salinity cycles from\u00a0time-series\u00a0water quality,\u00a0streamflow, and\u00a0precipitation\u00a0data in both the lower and upper Colorado\u00a0River Basins\u00a0in order to provide Reclamation the ability to understand, anticipate, and manage future salinity cycles in the lower river. Compared with the Lees Ferry record, both maximum and minimum salinity levels increase downstream by about 25% at Hoover Dam, by about 49% at Imperial Dam, and by about 69% at the northern international boundary with Mexico. In the upper basin, cyclical salinity trends are evident at the outflow of three major\u00a0tributaries, where salinity is also noted to be inversely related to streamflow. Time series trends in precipitation within the\u00a0catchments\u00a0of the three upper basin tributaries indicate cyclical periods with above normal precipitation and periods with below normal precipitation. Periods of greater than normal precipitation in the contributing areas correspond with declines in salinity at the catchment monitoring sites and periods of less than normal precipitation correspond with rising salinity at the sites. Based on the conceptual model developed in this investigation, a\u00a0multiple linear regression\u00a0model was developed using a stepwise variable\u00a0selection procedure\u00a0to simulate salinity in Lake Powell inflow. Important variables in the explanation of salinity entering Lake Powell include flow from the three upper basin tributaries, seasonality, and mean precipitation in the upper basin, among others. The\u00a0root mean square error\u00a0of prediction for the MLR model was 31.48\u202fmg/L (5.7%).",
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