Item talk:Q309354

{

 "USGS Publications Warehouse": {
   "@context": "https://schema.org",
   "@type": "Article",
   "additionalType": "Journal Article",
   "name": "Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics\u2010based earthquake forecasting models",
   "identifier": [
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID",
       "value": "70218733",
       "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70218733"
     },
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID",
       "value": 70218733
     },
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "DOI",
       "value": "10.1029/2020JB020824",
       "url": "https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020824"
     }
   ],
   "journal": {
     "@type": "Periodical",
     "name": "JGR Solid Earth",
     "volumeNumber": "126",
     "issueNumber": "2"
   },
   "inLanguage": "en",
   "isPartOf": [
     {
       "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries",
       "name": "JGR Solid Earth"
     }
   ],
   "datePublished": "2021",
   "dateModified": "2021-03-10",
   "abstract": "I explore why physics\u2010based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial\u2010temporal windows. Pseudo\u2010prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the mainshock. The synthetic sequences are generated from generalized \u201cphysical\u201d triggering models, optionally superimposed on background heterogeneity that controls the level of clustering. The statistical Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model performs relatively better the more clustered the direct aftershocks, while the true generalized \u201cphysical\u201d model performs relatively worse. Real aftershocks appear to be sufficiently clustered to allow ETAS to perform as well as or better than physical models such as Coulomb stress triggering. A likely cause of the spatial clustering of direct aftershocks is heterogeneity of the background physical conditions, which typically is not modeled in physics\u2010based forecasts. This implies that the forecast performance of physical models could be substantially improved through a better understanding of the interaction between earthquake stress changes and variable background physical conditions such as stress state, fault strength, and fluid pressure.",
   "description": "e2020JB020824, 16 p.",
   "publisher": {
     "@type": "Organization",
     "name": "American Geophysical Union"
   },
   "author": [
     {
       "@type": "Person",
       "name": "Hardebeck, Jeanne L.",
       "givenName": "Jeanne L.",
       "familyName": "Hardebeck",
       "identifier": {
         "@type": "PropertyValue",
         "propertyID": "ORCID",
         "value": "0000-0002-6737-7780",
         "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6737-7780"
       },
       "affiliation": [
         {
           "@type": "Organization",
           "name": "Earthquake Science Center",
           "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center"
         }
       ]
     }
   ],
   "funder": [
     {
       "@type": "Organization",
       "name": "Earthquake Science Center",
       "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center"
     }
   ]
 }

}