Item talk:Q307388
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{
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The\u00a0Reasenberg and Jones (1989)\u00a0model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following\u00a0M\u22655\u00a0mainshocks in California. Here, we update the \u201cgeneric\u201d parameters for California through a fit to the aftershock sequences of\u00a0M\u22655\u00a0mainshocks occurring since 1980. We find aftershock productivity values that are lower on average than the generic productivity reported by\u00a0Reasenberg and Jones (1989), likely because low\u2010productivity sequences were omitted from their analysis and possibly because of a trade\u2010off between productivity and\u00a0b\u2010value. We confirm the observation of\u00a0Llenos and Michael (2017)\u00a0that southern California sequences are more productive on average than northern California sequences. The Mendocino area is much less productive; the hydrothermal areas in Long Valley, Coso, and the Salton Sea, in contrast, are much more productive. We also quantify the variability of the\u00a0Reasenberg and Jones (1989)\u00a0productivity parameter\u00a0aabetween sequences with a normal distribution. This distribution of\u00a0a\u2010values can be used to compute aftershock forecasts that include epistemic uncertainty and can be used as the prior for Bayesian updating of the\u00a0aa\u2010value as a sequence progresses.", "description": "9 p.", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Seismological Society of America" }, "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Hardebeck, Jeanne L. jhardebeck@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Jeanne L.", "familyName": "Hardebeck", "email": "jhardebeck@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-6737-7780", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6737-7780" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center" }, { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Hazards Program", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Llenos, Andrea L. allenos@usgs.gov", 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mpage@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Morgan T.", "familyName": "Page", "email": "mpage@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0001-9321-2990", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9321-2990" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center" }, { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Hazards Program", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "van der Elst, Nicholas nvanderelst@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Nicholas", "familyName": "van der Elst", "email": "nvanderelst@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-3812-1153", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3812-1153" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Earthquake Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/earthquake-science-center" }, { "@type": 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