Item talk:Q256730
From geokb
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"name": "Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions",
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"name": "Global Change Biology",
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"abstract": "Land\u2010use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long\u2010term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land\u2010use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin\u2010wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land\u2010use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project \u2010 Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed\u2010wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land\u2010use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed\u2010wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land\u2010use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed\u2010wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%\u201326.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land\u2010use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land\u2010use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.",
"description": "19 p.",
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