Item talk:Q256488

From geokb

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   "name": "Partitioning ground motion uncertainty when conditioned on station data",
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   "abstract": "Rapid estimation of earthquake ground shaking and proper accounting of associated uncertainties in such estimates when conditioned on strong\u2010motion station data or macroseismic intensity observations are crucial for downstream applications such as ground failure and loss estimation. The U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap system is called upon to fulfill this objective in light of increased near\u2010real\u2010time access to strong\u2010motion records from around the world. Although the station data provide a direct constraint on shaking estimates at specific locations, these data also heavily influence the uncertainty quantification at other locations. This investigation demonstrates methods to partition the within\u2010 (phi) and between\u2010event (tau) uncertainty estimates under the observational constraints, especially when between\u2010event uncertainties are heteroscedastic. The procedure allows the end users of ShakeMap to create separate between\u2010 and within\u2010event realizations of ground\u2010motion fields for downstream loss modeling applications in a manner that preserves the structure of the underlying random spatial processes.",
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