Item talk:Q253905

{

 "USGS Publications Warehouse": {
   "@context": "https://schema.org",
   "@type": "Article",
   "additionalType": "Journal Article",
   "name": "Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation",
   "identifier": [
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID",
       "value": "70045158",
       "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70045158"
     },
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID",
       "value": 70045158
     },
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "DOI",
       "value": "10.1029/2012GL051818",
       "url": "https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051818"
     }
   ],
   "journal": {
     "@type": "Periodical",
     "name": "Geophysical Research Letters",
     "volumeNumber": "39",
     "issueNumber": "10"
   },
   "inLanguage": "en",
   "isPartOf": [
     {
       "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries",
       "name": "Geophysical Research Letters"
     }
   ],
   "datePublished": "2012",
   "dateModified": "2013-05-14",
   "abstract": "We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.",
   "description": "L10103; 6 p.",
   "publisher": {
     "@type": "Organization",
     "name": "Wiley"
   },
   "author": [
     {
       "@type": "Person",
       "name": "Love, Jeffrey J. jlove@usgs.gov",
       "givenName": "Jeffrey J.",
       "familyName": "Love",
       "email": "jlove@usgs.gov",
       "identifier": {
         "@type": "PropertyValue",
         "propertyID": "ORCID",
         "value": "0000-0002-3324-0348",
         "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3324-0348"
       },
       "affiliation": [
         {
           "@type": "Organization",
           "name": "Geologic Hazards Science Center",
           "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/geologic-hazards-science-center"
         }
       ]
     },
     {
       "@type": "Person",
       "name": "Rigler, E. Joshua",
       "givenName": "E. Joshua",
       "familyName": "Rigler"
     }
   ],
   "funder": [
     {
       "@type": "Organization",
       "name": "Geologic Hazards Science Center",
       "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/geologic-hazards-science-center"
     }
   ]
 }

}