Item talk:Q253340

From geokb

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   "name": "Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management",
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   "abstract": "Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation\ndramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics.\nAs climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies\nmay not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a\nbetter understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is\nreaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological\nsystems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management\ndecisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked\nproblems in land management\u2014those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant\nto easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape\nmodeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate\nfutures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2)\na future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of\neach approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and\nlandscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with\nthe FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that\ntypical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts\nof rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability\nof ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies,\nfuture landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones,\nwith significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate\nand wildfire.",
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