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{
"USGS Publications Warehouse": { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "additionalType": "Journal Article", "name": "Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management", "identifier": [ { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID", "value": "70210040", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70210040" }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID", "value": 70210040 }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "DOI", "value": "10.1126/science.abb9934", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb9934" } ], "journal": { "@type": "Periodical", "name": "Science", "volumeNumber": "368", "issueNumber": "6491" }, "inLanguage": "en", "isPartOf": [ { "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries", "name": "Science" } ], "datePublished": "2020", "dateModified": "2020-05-12", "abstract": "The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered efforts by multiple modeling groups to forecast disease trajectory, assess interventions, and improve understanding of the pathogen. Such models can often differ substantially in their projections and recommendations, reflecting different policy assumptions and objectives, as well as scientific, logistical, and other uncertainty about biological and management processes (1). Disparate predictions during any outbreak can hinder intervention planning and response by policy-makers (2, 3), who may instead choose to rely on single trusted sources of advice, or on consensus where it appears. Thus, valuable insights and information from other models may be overlooked, limiting the opportunity for decision-makers to account for risk and uncertainty and resulting in more lives lost or resources used than necessary. We advocate a more systematic approach, by merging two well-established research fields. The first element involves formal expert elicitation methods applied to multiple models to deliberately generate, retain, and synthesize valuable individual model ideas and share important insights during group discussions, while minimizing various cognitive biases. The second element uses a decision-theoretic framework to capture and account for within- and between-model uncertainty as we evaluate actions in a timely manner to achieve management objectives.", "description": "3 p.", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "AAAS" }, "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Shea, Katriona", "givenName": "Katriona", "familyName": "Shea", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-7607-8248", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7607-8248" } }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Runge, Michael C. mrunge@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Michael C.", "familyName": "Runge", "email": "mrunge@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-8081-536X", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8081-536X" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Patuxent Wildlife Research Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pwrc" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Pannell, David", "givenName": "David", "familyName": "Pannell", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "University of Western Australia" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Probert, William J. M.", "givenName": "William J. M.", "familyName": "Probert", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-3437-759X", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-759X" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "University of Oxford" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Li, Shou-Li", "givenName": "Shou-Li", "familyName": "Li" }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Tildesley, Michael J.", "givenName": "Michael J.", "familyName": "Tildesley", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "University of Nottingham, School of Biology" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Ferrari, Matthew J.", "givenName": "Matthew J.", "familyName": "Ferrari", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0001-5251-8168", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5251-8168" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "The Pennsylvania State University" } ] } ], "funder": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Patuxent Wildlife Research Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pwrc" } ] }, "OpenAlex": { "abstract_inverted_index": { "Expert": [ 0 ], "elicitation": [ 1 ], "methods": [ 2 ], "and": [ 3, 13 ], "a": [ 4 ], "structured": [ 5 ], "decision-making": [ 6 ], "framework": [ 7 ], "will": [ 8 ], "help": [ 9 ], "account": [ 10 ], "for": [ 11 ], "risk": [ 12 ], "uncertainty": [ 14 ] }, "apc_list": null, "apc_paid": null, "authorships": [ { "author_position": "first", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5035082420", "display_name": "Katriona Shea", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7607-8248" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I130769515", "display_name": "Pennsylvania State University", "ror": "https://ror.org/04p491231", "country_code": "US", "type": "education", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I130769515" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "Katriona Shea", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ "Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA." ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I130769515" ] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5074892841", "display_name": "Michael C. 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Pannell", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5420-9908" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I177877127", "display_name": "University of Western Australia", "ror": "https://ror.org/047272k79", "country_code": "AU", "type": "education", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I177877127" ] } ], "countries": [ "AU" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "David Pannell", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ "University of Western Australia, Perth WA 6009, Australia." ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "University of Western Australia, Perth WA 6009, Australia.", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I177877127" ] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5017711145", "display_name": "William J. M. Probert", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-759X" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I40120149", "display_name": "University of Oxford", "ror": "https://ror.org/052gg0110", "country_code": "GB", "type": "education", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I40120149" ] } ], "countries": [ "GB" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "William J. M. Probert", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ "Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK." ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I40120149" ] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5034867993", "display_name": "Shou\u2010Li Li", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8536-8194" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I76214153", "display_name": "Lanzhou University", "ror": "https://ror.org/01mkqqe32", "country_code": "CN", "type": "education", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I76214153" ] } ], "countries": [ "CN" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "Shou-Li Li", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ "State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agroecosystems, Center for Grassland Microbiome, and College of Pastoral, Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China." ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agroecosystems, Center for Grassland Microbiome, and College of Pastoral, Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China.", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I76214153" ] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5068152561", "display_name": "Michael J. 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