Item talk:Q239581
From geokb
{
"USGS Publications Warehouse": { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "additionalType": "Journal Article", "name": "Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios", "identifier": [ { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID", "value": "70192134", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70192134" }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID", "value": 70192134 }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "DOI", "value": "10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x" } ], "journal": { "@type": "Periodical", "name": "Climatic Change", "volumeNumber": "144", "issueNumber": "2" }, "inLanguage": "en", "isPartOf": [ { "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries", "name": "Climatic Change" } ], "datePublished": "2017", "dateModified": "2017-10-23", "abstract": "We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production and the resulting impact on land-use change across the contiguous USA. We first estimate an econometric model to project effects of weather fluctuations on crop and livestock net returns and then use a semi-reduced form land-use share model to study agricultural land-use changes under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that crop net returns are more sensitive to thermal and less sensitive to moisture variability than livestock net returns; other agricultural land uses substitute cropland use when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation are not beneficial for crop production. Under future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we project that crop and livestock net returns are both increasing, but with crop net returns increasing at a higher rate; cropland increases with declines of marginal and pastureland by the end of the twenty-first century. 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