Item talk:Q239540
From geokb
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"name": "A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)",
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"abstract": "Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake\u2010producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long\u2010term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short\u2010term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake\u2010clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self\u2010consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short\u2010term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short\u2010term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault\u2010based models: long\u2010term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg\u2013Richter scaling, and short\u2010term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.",
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