Item talk:Q160779

State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions

Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has occurred in the last several decades resulting in models that range widely in complexity and outputs. However, managers can still struggle to make informed decisions with these models for a variety of reasons, including misalignments between model outputs and the specific decision they are intended to inform, limitations in the technical capabilities of managers that may not have the experience or resources to use complex or expensive models, or the limitations of the models themselves. This project will provide a state of the science on low flow hydrological modeling that can be used to address management decisions specific to low flow hydrology, drought, and impacts from climate change. Specifically, through a worshop series, this project will 1) detail the decisions that managers must make related to low flow hydrology, drought, and climate change, 2) provide an inventory of appropriate hydrological models and model output that align to case-by-case decision making, and 3) identify areas for model improvements to address gaps, limitations, and uncertainties. A synthesis that summarizes and aligns hydrological models to the appropriate management decisions is expected to support more informed decision making and better outcomes as a result of more efficient and effective model application.