Item talk:Q150810

Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 post caldera-forming eruption have been anticipated?

In 2018 Kīlauea volcano erupted a decade’s worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kīlauea re-erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ~20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ~17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, implies excess pressure at the eruption end of only ~1 MPa. Given the new vent elevation, ∼11 − 12 MPa pressure increase was required to bring magma to the surface in December 2020. Analysis of GPS data between 8/2018 and 12/2020 shows there was a 73% probability that this condition was met at the onset of the 2020 eruption. Given a plausible range of possible vent elevations, there was a 40 to 88% probability of sufficient pressure to bring magma to the surface 100 days before the eruption.