Item talk:Q234116
From geokb
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"abstract": "High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as\u00a0the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing\u00a0and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of\u00a0high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map nearsurface\u00a0permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field\u00a0observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and\u00a0subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach generated medium-resolution (30-m pixels)\u00a0maps of near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost, active-layer thickness, and associated uncertainty estimates\u00a0throughout mainland Alaska. Our calibrated models (overall test accuracy of ~85%) were used to quantify changes\u00a0in permafrost distribution under varying future climate scenarios assuming no other changes in biophysical\u00a0factors. Models indicate that near-surface permafrost underlies 38% of mainland Alaska and that near-surface\u00a0permafrost will disappear on 16 to 24% of the landscape by the end of the 21st Century. Simulations suggest\u00a0that near-surface permafrost degradation is more probable in central regions of Alaska than more northerly regions.\u00a0Taken together, these results have obvious implications for potential remobilization of frozen soil carbon\u00a0pools under warmer temperatures. Additionally, warmer and drier conditions may increase fire activity and\u00a0severity, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and carbon remobilization relative to climate alone.\u00a0The mapping of permafrost distribution across Alaska is important for land-use planning, environmental assessments,\u00a0and a wide-array of geophysical studies.",
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