Item talk:Q312433
From geokb
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"abstract": "Salt marsh-dependent species are vulnerable to impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Site-specific differences in ecogeomorphic processes result in different SLR vulnerabilities. SLR impacts to Ridgway\u2019s rail (Rallus obsoletus) of Southern California (SC) and San Francisco Bay (SF), U.S.A. could foreshadow SLR effects on other coastal endemic species. Salt marsh vulnerabilities to SLR were forecasted across 14 study sites using the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience, which accounts for changes in above and belowground marsh processes. Changes in suitable habitat for rail were projected with MaxEnt. Under a high (166\u00a0cm/100\u00a0yr) SLR scenario, current extent of suitable habitat is projected to increase by 34% across the combined area of 14 sites by 2050, but by 2100, total habitat suitability is projected to decrease by 83%, with six salt marshes losing over 95% of suitable habitat. Under a high SLR scenario, SF\u2019s suitable habitat is predicted to increase by 35% at mid-century, and SC\u2019s current suitable habitat extent will increase by 24%. However, by 2100, SF is forecasted to lose 84% of suitable habitat and SC to lose 80% of its current habitat extent. If accretion rates cannot keep pace with SLR, salt marsh obligate species are in danger of being extirpated from their habitat.",
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