Item talk:Q271470
From geokb
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"abstract": "The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) impacts climate and rainfall across the world, and most\nseverely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive\nIOD events increased during the 20th Century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming\nworld6; however, confidence in future IOD changes is limited by known biases in model\nrepresentations of the IOD7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability prior to\nanthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records\nfrom the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is optimised,\nto produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of\nthe last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were\nrare prior to 1960. However, the strongest event on record (1997) is not unprecedented as at\nleast one event that was approximately 27% to 42% larger occurred naturally during the 17th\nCentury. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between variability of the\nIOD and the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was\ncharacterised by weak interannual variability prior to ~1590 CE which likely altered\nteleconnection patterns, and anomalously strong variability during the 17th Century that was\nassociated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency for clustering of positive IOD\nevents is evident in our reconstruction, which together with the identification of extreme IOD\nvariability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling may have implications for\nimproving seasonal and decadal prediction schemes and managing the climate risks of future\nIOD variability.",
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