Item talk:Q271362

{

 "USGS Publications Warehouse": {
   "@context": "https://schema.org",
   "@type": "Article",
   "additionalType": "Journal Article",
   "name": "A model ensemble for projecting multi\u2010decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century",
   "identifier": [
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID",
       "value": "70197818",
       "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70197818"
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       "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID",
       "value": 70197818
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     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
       "propertyID": "DOI",
       "value": "10.1029/2017JF004401",
       "url": "https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004401"
     }
   ],
   "journal": {
     "@type": "Periodical",
     "name": "Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface",
     "volumeNumber": "123",
     "issueNumber": "7"
   },
   "inLanguage": "en",
   "isPartOf": [
     {
       "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries",
       "name": "Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface"
     }
   ],
   "datePublished": "2018",
   "dateModified": "2018-08-31",
   "abstract": "Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi\u2010model ensemble that efficiently projects time\u2010averaged sea cliff retreat over multi\u2010decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1\u2010D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross\u2010shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km\u2010long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two\u2010fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 \u2013 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/\u2010 5 \u2013 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings ",
   "description": "24 p.",
   "publisher": {
     "@type": "Organization",
     "name": "American Geophysical Union"
   },
   "author": [
     {
       "@type": "Person",
       "name": "Limber, Patrick W. plimber@usgs.gov",
       "givenName": "Patrick W.",
       "familyName": "Limber",
       "email": "plimber@usgs.gov",
       "identifier": {
         "@type": "PropertyValue",
         "propertyID": "ORCID",
         "value": "0000-0002-8207-3750",
         "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8207-3750"
       },
       "affiliation": [
         {
           "@type": "Organization",
           "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center",
           "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center"
         }
       ]
     },
     {
       "@type": "Person",
       "name": "Barnard, Patrick L. pbarnard@usgs.gov",
       "givenName": "Patrick L.",
       "familyName": "Barnard",
       "email": "pbarnard@usgs.gov",
       "identifier": {
         "@type": "PropertyValue",
         "propertyID": "ORCID",
         "value": "0000-0003-1414-6476",
         "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1414-6476"
       },
       "affiliation": [
         {
           "@type": "Organization",
           "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center",
           "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center"
         }
       ]
     },
     {
       "@type": "Person",
       "name": "Vitousek, Sean svitousek@usgs.gov",
       "givenName": "Sean",
       "familyName": "Vitousek",
       "email": "svitousek@usgs.gov",
       "identifier": {
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         "value": "0000-0002-3369-4673",
         "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3369-4673"
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       "affiliation": [
         {
           "@type": "Organization",
           "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center",
           "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center"
         }
       ]
     },
     {
       "@type": "Person",
       "name": "Erikson, Li H. lerikson@usgs.gov",
       "givenName": "Li H.",
       "familyName": "Erikson",
       "email": "lerikson@usgs.gov",
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         "value": "0000-0002-8607-7695",
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       "affiliation": [
         {
           "@type": "Organization",
           "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center",
           "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center"
         }
       ]
     }
   ],
   "funder": [
     {
       "@type": "Organization",
       "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center",
       "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center"
     }
   ]
 }

}