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"abstract": "Accurate estimates of peak flows in the Big\nLost River at the Idaho National Engineering and\nEnvironmental Laboratory (INEEL) are needed to\nassist planners and managers with evaluating possible\neffects of flooding on facilities at the INEEL.\nA large difference of 4,350 cubic feet per second\n(ft3/s) between two previous estimates of the magnitude\nof the 100-year peak flow in the Big Lost\nRiver near the western boundary of the INEEL\nprompted the present study.\nRegression models that compared annual peak\nflows and attenuation of annual peak flows\nbetween successive gaging stations for the same\nflow event were used to estimate the magnitude of\nthe 100-year peak flow in the Big Lost River. The\n100-year peak flow of 4,790 ft3/s at the Howell\nRanch gaging station was used as the starting point\nfor this analysis. This estimate was determined by\nusing a three-parameter log-Pearson Type III distribution\nas outlined in \u201cGuidelines for Determining\nFlood Flow Frequency\u201d (Bulletin 17B by the\nInteragency Advisory Committee on Water Data).\nThe regression models indicated that, in the\nreach of the Big Lost River between Howell Ranch\nand Mackay Reservoir, downstream peak flows are\nlower than upstream peak flows. Peak-flow attenuation\nvalues for this reach of the river decreased\nnonlinearly as the magnitude of the peak flow\nincreased. Extrapolation of the trend resulted in an\nattenuation estimate of 13 percent for this reach\nrelative to the 100-year peak flow at the Howell\nRanch gaging station.\nIn the lower reach of the Big Lost River\nbetween Mackay Reservoir and Arco, downstream\npeak flows are also lower than upstream peak\nflows. However, in contrast to the upper reach,\npeak-flow attenuation values decreased linearly as\nthe magnitude of the peak flow increased. Extrapolation\nof the data indicated that peak-flow attenuations\nin this reach of the river approach zero for\nflows approaching the 100-year peak-flow estimate\nimmediately upstream and downstream from\nMackay Reservoir.\nA regression model of annual maximum daily\nmean flows between Arco and the INEEL diversion\ndam indicated that the attenuation values in\nthis reach of the river are nearly the same for all\nflows of record. Extrapolation of the linear regression\nof these values resulted in an attenuation estimate\nof 10 percent. Seepage measurements made\nduring 1951\u201353 also resulted in a loss estimate of\napproximately 10 percent. This attenuation value,\ncombined with the values from analyses of the\nupstream reaches, resulted in an estimate of the\n100-year peak flow for the Big Lost River immediately\nupstream from the INEEL diversion dam of\n3,750 ft3/s; upper and lower 95-percent confidence\nlimits were 6,250 ft3/s and 1,300 ft3/s, respectively.\nLocalized rainfall, even of high intensity, is\nnot likely to produce large peak flows at the\nINEEL because of high loss rates (infiltration,\nbank storage, and channel storage) along much of\nthe stream channel. The relatively short flow durations\nresulting from rainstorms historically have\nnot provided sufficient volumes of water to satisfy\nlocal storage demands (bank and channel storage).\nOnly after these storage demands are met do the\nloss rates decrease enough for significant peak\nflows to reach the INEEL site.\nAn uncertain component of the present analysis\nis the effect of seismic activity on the 100-year\npeak-flow estimate. Analysis of the effect of the\nmagnitude 7.3 Borah Peak earthquake in 1983 on normal flow conditions in the Big Lost River suggests\nthat the joint occurrence of a large earthquake\nand a 100-year peak flow could significantly\nincrease the magnitude of the peak flow at the\nINEEL.",
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