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"abstract": "Orthophosphate\u00a0(PO4) is the most bioavailable form of phosphorus (P). Excess PO4\u00a0may cause\u00a0harmful algal blooms\u00a0in\u00a0aquatic ecosystems. A major restoration effort is underway for Chesapeake Bay (CB) to reduce P, nitrogen, and sediment loading to CB. Although PO4\u00a0cycling and delivery to streams has been characterized in small-scale studies, regional drivers of PO4\u00a0patterns remain poorly understood because most water quality trend assessment focus on total P. Moreover, these trend assessments are usually at an annual timestep. To address this research gap, we analyzed PO4\u00a0patterns over a 9-year period at 53 monitoring stations across the CB watershed to: 1) characterize the role of PO4\u00a0in total P fluxes and trends; 2) describe spatial and temporal patterns of PO4\u00a0concentrations across seasons and\u00a0streamflow; and 3) explore factors explaining these patterns. Agricultural watersheds exported the most total P compared with watersheds under different land uses (e.g., urban or forest), with PO4\u00a0comprising up to 50% of those exports. Although PO4\u00a0exports are declining at many sites, some agricultural regions are experiencing increasing trends at a rate sufficient to drive total P trends. Regression modeling results suggest that point source load reductions are likely responsible for decreasing PO4\u00a0concentrations observed at many sites. Watersheds with more Conservation Reserve Program enrollment had lower summer PO4\u00a0concentrations, highlighting the effectiveness of this practice. Manure inputs strongly predicted PO4\u00a0concentrations at high flows across all seasons. Both manure applications and\u00a0conservation tillage\u00a0were correlated with changes in PO4\u00a0concentrations at high flow, suggesting these activities could contribute to increasing PO4\u00a0concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of point source control for reducing PO4\u00a0exports and underscores the need for management strategies to target sources, practices, and landscape factors determining PO4\u00a0loss from soils where manure inputs remain high.",
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