{
"USGS Publications Warehouse": { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "additionalType": "Journal Article", "name": "Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States\u2019 largest river basin", "identifier": [ { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID", "value": "70210608", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70210608" }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID", "value": 70210608 }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "DOI", "value": "10.1073/pnas.1916208117", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916208117" } ], "journal": { "@type": "Periodical", "name": "PNAS", "volumeNumber": "117", "issueNumber": "21" }, "inLanguage": "en", "isPartOf": [ { "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries", "name": "PNAS" } ], "datePublished": "2020", "dateModified": "2020-09-18", "abstract": "Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the \u201cturn-of-the-century drought,\u201d was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring\u2013based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.", "description": "9 p.", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Proceedings of the National Academies of Science" }, "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Martin, Justin", "givenName": "Justin", "familyName": "Martin", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-3523-6596", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3523-6596" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/norock" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Pederson, Gregory T. gpederson@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Gregory T.", "familyName": "Pederson", "email": "gpederson@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-6014-1425", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6014-1425" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/norock" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Woodhouse, Connie A.", "givenName": "Connie A.", "familyName": "Woodhouse", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85721" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Cook, Edward R.", "givenName": "Edward R.", "familyName": "Cook", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "McCabe, Gregory J. gmccabe@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Gregory J.", "familyName": "McCabe", "email": "gmccabe@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-9258-2997", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9258-2997" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "WMA - Earth System Processes Division", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources" }, { "@type": "Organization", "name": "National Research Program - Central Branch", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/arizona-water-science-center" }, { "@type": "Organization", "name": "National Research Program - Western Branch", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/arizona-water-science-center" }, { "@type": "Organization", "name": "WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Anchukaitis, Kevin J.", "givenName": "Kevin J.", "familyName": "Anchukaitis" }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Wise, Erika K.", "givenName": "Erika K.", "familyName": "Wise", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Erger, Patrick", "givenName": "Patrick", "familyName": "Erger", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dolan, Larry S.", "givenName": "Larry S.", "familyName": "Dolan", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "McGuire, Marketa", "givenName": "Marketa", "familyName": "McGuire", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu", "givenName": "Subhrendu", "familyName": "Gangopadhyay", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0003-3864-8251", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3864-8251" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Chase, Katherine J. kchase@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Katherine J.", "familyName": "Chase", "email": "kchase@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-5796-4148", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5796-4148" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "WY-MT Water Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wyoming-montana-water-science-center" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Littell, Jeremy", "givenName": "Jeremy", "familyName": "Littell", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-5302-8280", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5302-8280" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Alaska Climate Science Center", "url": null } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Gray, Stephen", "givenName": "Stephen", "familyName": "Gray", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-0959-3418", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0959-3418" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Alaska Climate Science Center", "url": null } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "St. George, Scott", "givenName": "Scott", "familyName": "St. George", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "University of Minnesota" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Friedman, Jonathan M. friedmanj@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Jonathan M.", "familyName": "Friedman", "email": "friedmanj@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-1329-0663", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1329-0663" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Fort Collins Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/fort-collins-science-center" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Sauchyn, David J.", "givenName": "David J.", "familyName": "Sauchyn", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "University of Saskatchewan" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie", "givenName": "Jeannine-Marie", "familyName": "St. Jacques" }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "King, John C.", "givenName": "John C.", "familyName": "King", "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Lone Pine Research" } ] } ], "funder": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/norock" }, { "@type": "Organization", "name": "John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/john-wesley-powell-center-for-analysis-and-synthesis" } ], "spatialCoverage": [ { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "country", "name": "United States", "url": "https://geonames.org/4074035" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "Colorado" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "Kansas" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "Missouri" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "Montana" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "North Dakota" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "Nebraska" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "South Dakota" }, { "@type": "Place", "additionalType": "state", "name": "Wyoming" }, { 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"https://openalex.org/A5037723765", "display_name": "Jessica Martin", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3523-6596" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "display_name": "United States Geological Survey", "ror": "https://ror.org/035a68863", "country_code": "US", "type": "government", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "https://openalex.org/I1335927249" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": true, "raw_author_name": "Justin T. Martin", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ ", , , , - .", "Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT 59717;" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT 59717;", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I1286329397" ] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": ", , , , - .", "institution_ids": [] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5036779794", "display_name": "Gregory T. Pederson", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6014-1425" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "display_name": "United States Geological Survey", "ror": "https://ror.org/035a68863", "country_code": "US", "type": "government", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "https://openalex.org/I1335927249" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "Gregory T. Pederson", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ ", , , , - .", "Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT 59717;" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT 59717;", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I1286329397" ] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": ", , , , - .", "institution_ids": [] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5048004686", "display_name": "Connie A. Woodhouse", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0545-9753" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I138006243", "display_name": "University of Arizona", "ror": "https://ror.org/03m2x1q45", "country_code": "US", "type": "education", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I138006243" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "Connie A. Woodhouse", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ ", , , , - .", "Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;", "School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I138006243" ] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": "Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;", "institution_ids": [] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": ", , , , - .", "institution_ids": [] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5028895068", "display_name": "Edward R. Cook", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7478-4176" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I152304114", "display_name": "Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory", "ror": "https://ror.org/02e2tgs60", "country_code": "US", "type": "facility", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I152304114", "https://openalex.org/I78577930" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "Edward R. Cook", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ ", , , , - .", "Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964;" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964;", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I152304114" ] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": ", , , , - .", "institution_ids": [] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5033673586", "display_name": "Gregory J. McCabe", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9258-2997" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "display_name": "United States Geological Survey", "ror": "https://ror.org/035a68863", "country_code": "US", "type": "government", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I1286329397", "https://openalex.org/I1335927249" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "Gregory J. McCabe", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ ", , , , - .", "Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Water Mission Area, US Geological Survey, Denver, CO 80225;" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Water Mission Area, US Geological Survey, Denver, CO 80225;", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I1286329397" ] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": ", , , , - .", "institution_ids": [] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5030091109", "display_name": "Kevin J. 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Anchukaitis", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ ", , , , - .", "Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;", "School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I138006243" ] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": "Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;", "institution_ids": [] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": ", , , , - .", "institution_ids": [] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5012069256", "display_name": "Erika K. Wise", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1712-7476" }, "institutions": [ { "id": "https://openalex.org/I114027177", "display_name": "University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill", "ror": "https://ror.org/0130frc33", "country_code": "US", "type": "education", "lineage": [ "https://openalex.org/I114027177" ] } ], "countries": [ "US" ], "is_corresponding": false, "raw_author_name": "Erika K. Wise", "raw_affiliation_strings": [ ", , , , - .", "Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599;" ], "affiliations": [ { "raw_affiliation_string": "Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599;", "institution_ids": [ "https://openalex.org/I114027177" ] }, { "raw_affiliation_string": ", , , , - .", "institution_ids": [] } ] }, { "author_position": "middle", "author": { "id": "https://openalex.org/A5075516527", "display_name": "Patrick J. 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