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"USGS Publications Warehouse": { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "additionalType": "Journal Article", "name": "Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise", "identifier": [ { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID", "value": "70187987", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70187987" }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID", "value": 70187987 }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "DOI", "value": "10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7" } ], "journal": { "@type": "Periodical", "name": "Scientific Reports", "volumeNumber": "7", "issueNumber": null }, "inLanguage": "en", "isPartOf": [ { "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries", "name": "Scientific Reports" } ], "datePublished": "2017", "dateModified": "2017-05-26", "abstract": "Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20\u2009cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.", "description": "Article number: 1399; 9 p.", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Nature" }, "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Vitousek, Sean svitousek@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Sean", "familyName": "Vitousek", "email": "svitousek@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-3369-4673", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3369-4673" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Barnard, Patrick L. pbarnard@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Patrick L.", "familyName": "Barnard", "email": "pbarnard@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0003-1414-6476", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1414-6476" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Fletcher, Charles H.", "givenName": "Charles H.", "familyName": "Fletcher" }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Frazer, Neil", "givenName": "Neil", "familyName": "Frazer" }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Erikson, Li H. lerikson@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Li H.", "familyName": "Erikson", "email": "lerikson@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-8607-7695", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8607-7695" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center" } ] }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Storlazzi, Curt D. cstorlazzi@usgs.gov", "givenName": "Curt D.", "familyName": "Storlazzi", "email": "cstorlazzi@usgs.gov", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0001-8057-4490", "url": "https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-4490" }, "affiliation": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center" } ] } ], "funder": [ { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pacific-coastal-and-marine-science-center" } ] }, "OpenAlex": { "abstract_inverted_index": { "Global": [ 0 ], "climate": [ 1 ], "change": [ 2 ], "drives": [ 3 ], "sea-level": [ 4, 19, 43, 65, 90, 141 ], "rise,": [ 5 ], "increasing": [ 6 ], "the": [ 7, 16, 48, 79, 125, 129, 152, 159, 162, 170 ], 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"levels": [ 72 ], "thus": [ 77 ], "underestimate": [ 78 ], "potential": [ 80 ], "impact.": [ 81 ], "Here": [ 82 ], "we": [ 83 ], "use": [ 84 ], "extreme": [ 85, 155 ], "value": [ 86 ], "theory": [ 87 ], "combine": [ 89 ], "projections": [ 91 ], "with": [ 92, 114 ], "wave,": [ 93 ], "tide,": [ 94 ], "surge": [ 97 ], "models": [ 98 ], "estimate": [ 100 ], "increases": [ 101, 131 ], "in": [ 102, 124, 132, 158 ], "on": [ 105 ], "a": [ 106 ], "continuous": [ 107 ], "global": [ 108 ], "scale.": [ 109 ], "We": [ 110 ], "find": [ 111 ], "that": [ 112 ], "regions": [ 113 ], "limited": [ 115 ], "water-level": [ 116, 156 ], "variability,": [ 117 ], "i.e.,": [ 118 ], "short-tailed": [ 119 ], "flood-level": [ 120 ], "distributions,": [ 121 ], "located": [ 122 ], "mainly": [ 123 ], "Tropics,": [ 126, 160 ], "will": [ 127, 148 ], "experience": [ 128 ], "largest": [ 130 ], "frequency.": [ 134 ], "The": [ 135 ], "10": [ 136 ], "20": [ 138 ], "cm": [ 139 ], "expected": [ 143 ], "no": [ 144 ], "later": [ 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