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However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions4. We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan boreal forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord5\u00a0led to simulated C losses of 1.4\u2009kg\u2009C\u2009m\u22122\u00a0(12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3\u2009kg\u2009C\u2009m\u22122\u00a0occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends6\u00a0and future projections7\u00a0point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions8\u00a0that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2\u00a0may be over-optimistic.", "description": "4 p.", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Nature" }, "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "McGuire, A. David ffadm@usgs.gov", "givenName": "A. 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