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   "name": "Phenological adjustment in arctic bird species: relative importance of snow melt and ecological factors",
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   "abstract": "Previous studies have documented advancement in clutch initiation dates (CIDs) in response to climate change, most notably for temperate-breeding passerines. Despite accelerated climate change in the Arctic, few studies have examined nest phenology shifts in arctic breeding species. We investigated whether CIDs have advanced for the most abundant breeding shorebird and passerine species at a long-term monitoring site in arctic Alaska. We pooled data from three additional nearby sites to determine the explanatory power of snow melt and ecological variables (predator abundance, green-up) on changes in breeding phenology. As predicted, all species (semipalmated sandpiper,\u00a0Calidris pusilla, pectoral sandpiper,\u00a0Calidris melanotos, red-necked phalarope,\u00a0Phalaropus lobatus, red phalarope,\u00a0Phalaropus fulicarius, Lapland longspur,\u00a0Calcarius lapponicus) exhibited advanced CIDs ranging from 0.40 to 0.80\u00a0days/year over 9\u00a0years. Timing of snow melt was the most important variable in explaining clutch initiation advancement (\u201cclimate/snow hypothesis\u201d) for four of the five species, while green-up was a much less important explanatory factor. We found no evidence that high predator abundances led to earlier laying dates (\u201cpredator/re-nest hypothesis\u201d). Our results support previous arctic studies in that climate change in the cryosphere will have a strong impact on nesting phenology although factors explaining changes in nest phenology are not necessarily uniform across the entire Arctic. Our results suggest some arctic-breeding shorebird and passerine species are altering their breeding phenology to initiate nesting earlier enabling them to, at least temporarily, avoid the negative consequences of a trophic mismatch.",
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}

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