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"USGS Publications Warehouse": { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "additionalType": "Journal Article", "name": "Application of a process-based shallow landslide hazard model over a broad area in Central Italy", "identifier": [ { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse IndexID", "value": "70162406", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70162406" }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "USGS Publications Warehouse Internal ID", "value": 70162406 }, { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "DOI", "value": "10.1007/s10346-015-0670-6", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0670-6" } ], "inLanguage": "en", "isPartOf": [ { "@type": "CreativeWorkSeries", "name": "Landslides" } ], "datePublished": "2015", "dateModified": "2016-01-22", "abstract": "Process-based models are widely used for rainfall-induced shallow landslide forecasting. Previous studies have successfully applied the U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model (Baum et al.\u00a02002) to compute infiltration-driven changes in the hillslopes\u2019 factor of safety on small scales (i.e., tens of square kilometers). Soil data input for such models are difficult to obtain across larger regions. This work describes a novel methodology for the application of TRIGRS over broad areas with relatively uniform hydrogeological properties. The study area is a 550-km2\u00a0region in Central Italy covered by post-orogenic Quaternary sediments. Due to the lack of field data, we assigned mechanical and hydrological property values through a statistical analysis based on literature review of soils matching the local lithologies. We calibrated the model using rainfall data from 25 historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. We compared the variation of pressure head and factor of safety with the landslide occurrence to identify the best fitting input conditions. Using calibrated inputs and a soil depth model, we ran TRIGRS for the study area. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, comparing the model\u2019s output with a shallow landslide inventory, shows that TRIGRS effectively simulated the instability conditions in the post-orogenic complex during historical rainfall scenarios. 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