{
"@context": "http://schema.org/", "@type": "WebPage", "additionalType": "Project", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/fort-collins-science-center/science/using-simulation-models-project-and-evaluate-post-fire", "headline": "Using simulation models to project and evaluate post-fire success in restoring sage-grouse habitat over large landscapes", "datePublished": "September 6, 2023", "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Cameron L Aldridge, PhD", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/cameron-l-aldridge", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "orcid", "value": "0000-0003-3926-6941" } }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Elizabeth Orning, PhD", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/elizabeth-orning", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "orcid", "value": "0000-0002-1376-729X" } }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "Peter Coates", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/peter-coates", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "orcid", "value": "0000-0003-2672-9994" } }, { "@type": "Person", "name": "David A Pyke", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/david-a-pyke", "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "orcid", "value": "0000-0002-4578-8335" } } ], "description": [ { "@type": "TextObject", "text": "Wildfires are increasingly destroying wildlife habitat in sagebrush (Artemisia species) ecosystems, and managers need approaches to scope the pace and degree to which post-fire restoration actions can re-create habitat in dynamic landscapes. Sagebrush recovery takes a long time, and it can be difficult to anticipate restoration outcomes over large, diverse landscapes that have experienced decades of natural succession and disturbance. It is also challenging to conceptualize projected vegetation in terms of the specific needs of wildlife species." }, { "@type": "TextObject", "text": "To help overcome these challenges, scientists at USGS and Colorado State University developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model (STSMs) framework for sagebrush-steppe landscapes. The framework and approach allowed comparison of habitat restoration outcomes from different post-fire revegetation strategies at larger spatial scales than the revegetation-habitat-recovery model and individual-based model (IBM) developed for Field of Sagebrush Dreams research in the Tuscarora region of Nevada." }, { "@type": "TextObject", "text": "Researchers examined how well projected post-fire revegetated landscapes (2018-2068) corresponded to habitat needs for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in three Priority Area for Conservation populations (Utah, Nevada, Oregon/California). Recent extensions to STSMs allow continuous variables (for example, percent cover) associated with discrete vegetation states to be tracked and modeled over space and time, letting researchers explicitly model stochastic vegetation cover gain and loss dynamics in simulations. This was useful because continuous values of percent cover are often used to define habitat for sage-grouse (for example, percent sagebrush or perennial grass) and determine revegetation success. To evaluate the potential for post-fire success, scenarios were constructed to contrast the different restoration actions and implementations (seeding or planting revegetation treatments), duration of application (single-, multi-year), and amount of area treated (effort in this study). Researchers also determined potential change in projected habitat classifications after 50 years. By comparing different scenarios of post-fire vegetation recovery with sage-grouse habitat needs, the model and results allow managers to scope the feasibility of site-level revegetation actions scaling up across larger spatial extents to create habitat for sage-grouse populations." }, { "@type": "TextObject", "text": "This study has been published in Ecological Modelling: Orning, E.K., J.A. Heinrichs, D.A. Pyke, P.S. Coates, and C.L. Aldridge. 2023. Using state-transition simulation models to scope post-fire success in restoring greater sage-grouse habitat. Ecological Modelling 483:110396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110396." }, { "@type": "TextObject", "text": "The model framework and approach could be used to inform management decisions and restoration planning for entire sagebrush communities or targeted to specific species of conservation concern. Some examples for how the projected vegetation and habitat from these models can help land managers and analysts assess the feasibility of creating minimum to high quality habitat for sage-grouse or other target species:" }, { "@type": "TextObject", "text": "The project team included Elizabeth Orning, Julie Heinrichs, David Pyke, Peter Coates, and Cameron Aldridge. For further information or to request a briefing on this research, please contact Elizabeth Orning (eorning@usgs.gov)." } ], "funder": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Fort Collins Science Center", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/fort-collins-science-center" }, "about": [ { "@type": "Thing", "name": "sage grouse" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Disturbance" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Ecosystem Baselines and Restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "sagebrush biome" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Ecosystem Restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Information Systems" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Monitoring" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Fire Rehabilitation Effects and Effectiveness" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Landscape Ecology" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Ecology" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Land Management" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Landscape Patterns and Disturbance" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Tools and Techniques for Monitoring Wildlife Habitats, Communities, and Populations" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Sagebrush Ecosystems" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Sagebrush" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Habitat Management" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Wildland Fire Research" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Habitat Mapping and Modeling" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Energy" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Land management" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Large-Scale Restoration Science" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Role of Fire and Fuels in Ecological Restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Restoration, Rehabilitation, or Reclamation" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Applied Statistical Methods and Tools" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Science Technology" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Methods and Analyses" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "sagebrush restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Environmental Health" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Sagebrush-Associated Species" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "habitat management" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Water" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Habitat Disturbance, Loss, or Degradation" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Restoration and Recovery" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Habitat Loss/degradation" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Quantitative Modeling" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Aridlands" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Large-Scale Ecology" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Fire, Fuel Treatments, and Restoration Ecology" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Management Tools" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Fish and Wildlife" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Tools for Landscape Assessment" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Greater Sage-grouse" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Quantitative modeling" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Effects on Ecosystems" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Tools and Techniques" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Landscape Science" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Fire and Other Disturbance Effects, Soil Erosion, and Restoration in Sagebrush Steppe" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Threats" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Methods and Analysis" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Effects on Animals" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Landscape Management Research Program" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Plant, Animal, and Ecosystem Effects" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Management and Restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Rangeland Management and Restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Sagebrush Steppe" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "sagebrush and sage grouse" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Post-Fire Restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Ecosystems We Research" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Wildfire and Post-fire Management" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Geology" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Sage-grouse" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Environmental Stressors" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Priority Landscapes" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Ecosystems" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Post-Fire Recovery" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Sagebrush and Sage Grouse" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Ecosystem Change and Disturbance" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Restoration Effectiveness" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Fire" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Sage-Grouse" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Landscape Change" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Aridlands Management and Restoration" }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Management and Restoration of Priority Western Landscapes" } ]
}