Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains
Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, and will likely trigger significant and permanent changes in both ecological and human communities. Such transformations are already occurring in the Arctic region of Alaska, where temperatures are warming at twice the global average and causing some ecosystems to transition to new states. Arctic warming has led to coastal erosion that has forced human communities to relocate and a loss of sea ice that has forced marine mammals, such as polar bears and walrus, to adapt to a more terrestrial mode of living. Meanwhile, in the Great Plains of the U.S., past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala aquifer due to irrigation for agriculture demonstrate how ecological and social systems interact. The Great Plains could also be at risk of future transformation as the climate changes. Ecological transformations present novel challenges to resource managers and the communities that rely on natural resources for subsistence, economic, cultural, and aesthetic benefits. They are difficult to predict and, therefore, hard to incorporate into management planning. The goal of this project is to synthesize lessons learned from how communities, individuals, natural resource agencies, and industry (e.g., energy development, agriculture, ranching) have responded to past and on-going ecological transformations in two very different environments—Arctic Alaska and the Great Plains. In the Arctic case study, researchers will synthesize information on how communities are responding to dramatic ecological transformations that have already taken place or are ongoing. In the Great Plains case study, researchers will focus on understanding drought- and land use-driven transformations and the potential for proactive adaptation planning. In both cases, researchers will explore a subset of central themes, such as novel conservation practices in transformed ecosystems; the challenges associated with managing for species that may be shifting to new areas; new, climate-driven economic opportunities for industry that also have consequences for conservation; and shifts in federal oversight and local leadership for management in transformed ecosystems. As part of this project, researchers will engage public agencies, rural and indigenous communities, and industries to gain a range of perspectives. They will also explore variations in response rates and their root causes, such as rapid responses in industry to new opportunities or slower response rates in agencies that are more constrained. The results of this project will inform conservation planners and resource managers about the opportunities and challenges of novel strategies for responding to climate change in heavily-impacted ecosystems.