Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize the destruction of ecological communities, threats of future flooding, and extensive damages by lessening the intensity of future wildfires. Although safe burning practices can largely minimize the risks, prescribed burns may bring some degree of concern among practitioners. The real and perceived risks may include bodily injuries, liabilities due to damage of others’ property, mental and physical stress from smoke, and disruptions to commerce, among other negative impacts. In light of this, fire managers face significant challenges in managing and communicating the risks and benefits of prescribed burns. This research will concentrate on the nexus of climate change, prescribed fire, risk analysis, tolerance, and communication. We will conduct an assessment of: (1) the state of the science on how climate change is currently integrated in the prescribed fire management strategies used across our region and other parts of the U.S.; (2) what elements of successful strategies can be transferrable across regions and what elements must be place-based including the structure of prescribed burn networks (e.g., resource and knowledge flows); and (3) the implications of these strategies and elements for natural resource management and climate change adaptation efforts in the south-central U.S. Products will include one or more papers on the regional findings, with one or more papers placing these regional findings in a broader national context; and public-facing documents and/or communication activities (e.g., webinars) to engage managers with the results of this work.