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"name": "Effects of drought and cloud-water interception on groundwater recharge and wildfire hazard for recent and future climate conditions, Kaua\u02bbi, O\u02bbahu, Moloka\u02bbi, Maui, and the Island of Hawai\u02bbi",
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"abstract": "The Water-budget Accounting for Tropical Regions Model (WATRMod) code was used for Kaua\u02bbi, O\u02bbahu, Moloka\u02bbi, Maui, and the Island of Hawai\u02bbi to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for a set of water-budget scenarios. The scenarios included historical and future drought conditions, and a land-cover condition where shrubland and forest within the cloud zone were converted to grassland. For the historical drought condition, island-wide mean annual recharge estimates range from a decrease of 30 percent (239 million gallons per day [Mgal/d]) for Kaua\u02bbi to a decrease of 39 percent (2,706 Mgal/d) for the Island of Hawai\u02bbi, relative to the reference condition consisting of 1978\u20132007 rainfall and 2020 land cover. For the future drought condition, estimates of island-wide mean annual recharge range from a decrease of 40 percent (477 Mgal/d) on Maui to a decrease of 51 percent (116 Mgal/day) on Moloka\u02bbi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition produces estimated land-cover-related decreases in island-wide mean annual recharge (in addition to the drought-related decreases) of 11\u201312 Mgal/d on O\u02bbahu, 119\u2013135 Mgal/day on Maui, and 689\u2013849 Mgal/d on the Island of Hawai\u02bbi. The spatial distributions of increases in conditions indicative of moisture stress and potential wildfire hazard were quantified using the relative frequency of soil moisture less than a selected threshold value (monthly mean soil moisture less than 0.074, expressed as a fraction of available water capacity), evapotranspiration less than a selected threshold value (monthly evapotranspiration less than 0.96 inches), and climatic water deficit greater than a selected threshold value (monthly climatic water deficit greater than 0.77, expressed as fraction of potential evapotranspiration). For the historical drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency for the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of east and southwest Kaua\u02bbi; central, east, and west O\u02bbahu; central Moloka\u02bbi; central Maui and low- to mid-altitude parts of West Maui volcano; and the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawai\u02bbi. For the future drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency of the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of west Kaua\u02bbi; central and west O\u02bbahu and Moloka\u02bbi; a band of mid-altitude area on the southern slope of West Maui volcano and across the southwestern slope of Haleakal\u0101; and mid-altitude areas of the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawai\u02bbi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition results in land-cover-related increases in the relative frequency of moisture-stress indicators around Ka\u02bbala in the Wai\u02bbanae Range and the southeastern part of the Ko\u02bbolau Range on O\u02bbahu, the southern part of West Maui volcano and the southwestern slope of Haleakal\u0101 on Maui, and the upland regions of the western and southern parts of the Island of Hawai\u02bbi.",
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