Item talk:Q66099

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     "name": "Constraints and conundrums resulting from ground-deformation measurements made during the 2004-2005 dome-building eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington",
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         "value": "10.3133/pp175014",
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     "datePublished": "2008",
     "dateModified": "2019-05-31",
     "abstract": "A prolonged period of dome growth at Mount St. Helens \nstarting in September-October 2004 provides an opportunity \nto study how the volcano deforms before, during, and after an \neruption by using modern instruments and techniques, such as \nglobal positioning system (GPS) receivers and interferometric \nsynthetic aperture radar (InSAR), together with more traditional ones, including tiltmeters, triangulation, photogrammetry, and time-lapse photography. No precursory ground \ndeformation was detected by campaign GPS measurements \nmade in 2000 and 2003, nor by a continuous GPS station \n(JRO1) operating ~9 km to the north-northwest of the vent \narea since May 1997. However, JRO1 abruptly began moving downward and southward, toward a source centered about \n8 km beneath the volcano, concurrently with the start of a \nshallow earthquake swarm on September 23, 2004. The JRO1 \nvelocity slowed from ~0.5 millimeters per day (mm/d) in late \nSeptember\u2013early October 2004 until spring 2005. Thereafter, \nit was essentially constant at ~0.04 mm/d through December \n2005. In similar fashion, the growth rate of the welt on the \nsouth crater floor slowed from 8.9 m3/s during October 4\u201311 \nto 6.4 m3/s during October 11-13, 2004; this trend continued \nafter emergence of the first lava spine on October 11. The \nvolumetric extrusion rate decreased from 5.9 m3/s during \nOctober 13-November 4, 2004, to 2.5 m3/s during December \n11, 2004-January 3, 2005, and for the remainder of 2005, it \nwas in the range 2.0-0.7 m3/s. Fifteen continuous GPS stations, installed soon after the eruption began, showed radially \ninward and downward ground motions through December \n2005. Likewise, InSAR observations spanning the first year of the eruption indicate broad subsidence centered near the vent. \nModel-derived estimates of source-volume decrease from \nSeptember 23, 2004, to October 31, 2006, are 16-24\u00d7106 m3, \nsubstantially less than the volume erupted during the same \nperiod (87\u00d7106 m3\n through October 21, 2006). The discrepancy can be explained by a combination of magma expansion \nand recharge in the source region.\nLack of precursory deformation at JRO1 suggests that \nthe conduit is poorly coupled to the rest of the edifice, so the \nrising magma column was able to push ahead older conduit material rather than intruding it. Constraints on conduit \nlength and radius require that reservoir magma (as opposed \nto conduit-filling magma) reached the surface early during \nthe eruption, probably soon after CO2\n emission rates peaked \nin early October 2004. If rapid emergence of spine 3 (the first \nwhaleback-shaped extrusion) in late October 2004 marked \nthe arrival of reservoir magma, then the volume of conduit \nmaterial flushed from the system was about 20\u00d7106 m3\n--the \nvolume of surface deformation plus spines on November 4, \n2004. The corresponding radius for a cylinder extending from \nthe surface to depth d = 5 km is 35.7 m, or 28.2 m for d = 8 \nkm. The average ascent rate through the conduit, assuming \nreservoir magma began its rise on September 23, 2004, was \n120 m/d for d = 5 km, or 190 m/d for d = 8 km. Observed lineal extrusion rates were 2-10 m/d, so the conduit must widen \nconsiderably near the surface. Equating magma flux through \nthe conduit to that at the surface, we obtain a vent radius of \n125 m and an extrusion rate of 5.7 m3/s--both values representative of the early part of the eruption.\nLack of precursory inflation suggests that the volcano was poised to erupt magma already stored in a crustal \nreservoir when JRO1 was installed in 1997. Trilateration \nand campaign GPS data indicate surface dilatation, presumably caused by reservoir expansion between 1982 and 1991, \nbut no measurable deformation between 1991 and 2003. We \nconclude that all three of the traditionally reliable eruption precursors (seismicity, ground deformation, and volcanic \ngas emission) failed to provide warning that an eruption was \nimminent until a few days before a visible welt appeared at \nthe surface--a situation reminiscent of the 1980 north-flank \nbulge at Mount St. Helens.",
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